Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 0.016065 0.018193 0.020517 0.023244 0.026362 0.029820 0.033951
2024-10-27 0.012152 0.014904 0.018172 0.022351 0.027572 0.033903 0.042198
2024-11-03 0.010708 0.013856 0.017812 0.023175 0.030296 0.039483 0.052325
2024-11-10 0.009624 0.013007 0.017460 0.023793 0.032638 0.044653 0.062383
2024-11-17 0.008777 0.012314 0.017160 0.024344 0.034828 0.049729 0.072799
2024-11-24 0.007841 0.011363 0.016359 0.024039 0.035689 0.052923 0.080765
2024-12-01 0.007091 0.010583 0.015694 0.023816 0.036579 0.056165 0.089079
2024-12-08 0.006468 0.009917 0.015112 0.023624 0.037446 0.059395 0.097663
2024-12-15 0.006114 0.009619 0.015048 0.024209 0.039566 0.064779 0.110349
2024-12-22 0.005627 0.009061 0.014516 0.023969 0.040280 0.067886 0.119455
2024-12-29 0.005402 0.008903 0.014605 0.024755 0.042783 0.074241 0.135009
2025-01-05 0.004905 0.008247 0.013808 0.023938 0.042391 0.075461 0.141237
2025-01-12 0.004529 0.007772 0.013290 0.023586 0.042837 0.078307 0.151044
2025-01-19 0.004106 0.007181 0.012524 0.022718 0.042248 0.079183 0.157137
2025-01-26 0.003986 0.007117 0.012679 0.023553 0.044948 0.086580 0.177270
2025-02-02 0.003844 0.007000 0.012727 0.024183 0.047304 0.093539 0.197368
2025-02-09 0.003704 0.006872 0.012740 0.024743 0.049569 0.100545 0.218456
2025-02-16 0.003466 0.006539 0.012336 0.024433 0.050013 0.103804 0.231613
2025-02-23 0.003259 0.006249 0.011990 0.024206 0.050602 0.107421 0.246029
2025-03-02 0.003073 0.005985 0.011674 0.024011 0.051234 0.111187 0.261268
2025-03-09 0.002985 0.005911 0.011731 0.024606 0.053657 0.119205 0.287866
2025-03-16 0.002818 0.005663 0.011414 0.024362 0.054165 0.122885 0.304130
2025-03-23 0.002763 0.005642 0.011564 0.025161 0.057148 0.132685 0.337424